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Richer On Wednesday, Inflation Expectations Ease

BONDS

NZGBs sit 5-11bps richer across the major benchmarks, the early gains held through the session and ranges remained narrow for the most part.

  • 10 Year NZ US Swap Spread remains stable, we sit at 50bps which is well within recent ranges.
  • RBNZ dated OIS are stable, pricing a terminal rate of ~5.50% in Feb 24 with ~40bps of cuts by Oct 24.
  • The RBNZ’s measure of business inflation expectations points to a further moderation in CPI over the remainder of 2023. 1-year ahead eased to 3.6% for Q4 from 4.2%, the lowest since Q3 2021 and 1.5pp below the Q1 2023 peak.
  • The 2-year ahead measure has naturally been running below the 1-year and posted its third straight quarter at 2.8%, within the RBNZ’s target band, but to two decimal places is the lowest since Q3 2021.
  • Looking ahead, the local docket is empty tomorrow.
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