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Richmond Fed’s Barkin Offers A More Hawkish Takeaway

FED
  • Reuters reports Barkin (’24 voter typically at the middling/leaning hawkish part of the FOMC spectrum) as saying consumer spending and economic strength make it possible the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools.
  • If inflation remains high and demand gives ‘no signal’ that it is likely to drop then it would require tighter monetary policy, and recent bond yield moves are not a sign of inappropriate market tightening but rather likely a response to strong economic data.
  • He doesn’t offer a view for the Sept FOMC decision, for which there is currently just +3bp priced.
  • It follows earlier remarks that if the US has a recession it would likely be a less severe one whilst seeing the Fed risking credibility if it were to consider changing its 2% inflation target.

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