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Riksbank Preview - Sep 2023: 25bp Hike Against A Weak Backdrop

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The Riksbank are expected to hike 25bps on Thursday, with their signalling for the policy path going forwards the key question this meeting.
  • Headline and underlying inflation have fallen over the summer, though the August CPIF ex-energy reading still came in above the Riksbank forecast and remains far above the 2% target.
  • The continued depreciation of the SEK is of significant concern to the Executive Board. While direct intervention is not expected, there is potential for the Riksbank to announce the hedging of its FX reserves this meeting.
  • The economic backdrop in Sweden has continued to show signs of weakness and we expect the Riksbank to acknowledge this fact, while keeping the door open for a November hike to keep the SEK supported.
Our full preview including a summary of sell-side views can be found here.



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