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Rising ST Rates Continue To Support Financial Stocks

CZECHIA
  • This morning, economic data showed that the 'national concept' trade deficit grew to 28.1bn CZK in August (vs. 5.9bn exp) and that industrial output rose by 1.4% in August (vs. 5.1% exp.).
  • Even though the political uncertainty may weigh on Czech asset prices in the short term (Czech general on Oct 8/9), the market will continue to attribute more importance to the CNB tightening cycle.
  • The Central bank is expected to continue its tightening cycle in the near term, with the debate now only focusing on the size and the frequency of future hikes.
  • Czech financial equities (MSCI Index) continue to trend higher, breaking above the 1,200 resistance and currently trading at their highest level since April 2018.
  • We previously saw that Czech financials have been partly driven by the rise in ST interest rates in the past 18 months instead of the 'traditional' 2Y10Y yield curve (see chart).
  • Next important data to watch is September CPI inflation coming out on Oct 11.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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