Risk Of Military Escalation In Niger Increases After Junta Rejects Ultimatum

Niger's coup leaders rejected an ultimatum from a bloc of West African states to reinstate democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum or risk military intervention as the deadline expired on Sunday night.

• The junta announced a closure of the country's airspace until further notice as the risk of a military confrontation increased. Rallies in support of the coup were held in the capital Niamey, with many participants waving Russian flags.
• Consistent with earlier predictions, multiple media outlets reported that Niger's coup leaders have made initial contact with Russia's Wagner Group, seeking its help in consolidating power.
• As signalled earlier, the situation in Niger has implications reaching beyond the country's borders, due to its status as a major supplier of uranium, key migration route into Europe, and a launchpad for Western counter-terrorism operations.
• Regional bloc ECOWAS said that they have prepared a detailed plan of a potential intervention, but junta-ruled Mali and Burkina Faso said that they would treat an attack on Niger as a declaration of war against themselves.
• Questions abound about the potential implementation of the intervention plan. Any such action would be led by the main military and economic regional power Nigeria, where the Senate advised President Bola Tinubu to first explore other options.
• France said that it would "firmly" support any decision taken by ECOWAS, but did not indicate whether it would provide any military support to the bloc. Niger's junta leaders have framed the coup as going against French influence in the country.