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Risk Revived, Boosts EUR/USD Outlook

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Risk outlook faded through Friday trade which acted to press EUR/USD off a European morning high of $1.2163 to $1.2105 into the 1600GMT fix, with recovery effort during the NY afternoon capped at $1.2120.
  • Risk was given a lift into Asia Monday by the extension in Brexit trade negotiations (past the Sunday 'deadline'), which in turn allowed EUR/USD to push up to $1.2144 before momentum waned.
  • Rate dropped back to $1.2116 then bounced, Asian traders highlighted demand in EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP, which saw rate retest its earlier high into Europe.
  • Resistance seen into $1.2150 ahead of Friday's high at $1.2163, the Dec04 YTD high lurking in the background at $1.2178. Support $1.2116-00, $1.2085/80.
  • EZ IP at 1000GMT.
  • Attention on the US Electoral College vote, most expect them to verify Biden's presidential win.
  • Vaccine roll-out in the US, along with Brexit talks support risk. Focus on Dec18 pending bill deadline for a US fiscal stimulus agreement. FOMC monpol decision due Dec16.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is unchanged and remains below recent highs. A bullish outlook remains intact though. This follows the Dec 1 clearance of the of 1.2011, Sep 1 high that confirmed a resumption of the uptrend since Mar 23. The pair has also cleared 1.2102, 76.4% of the entire 2018-20 downleg reinforcing bullish conditions. Moving average studies continue to point north. The focus is on 1.2184 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 1.2059.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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