Rosengren interview continues: - Blue Chip......>

FED: Rosengren interview continues:

- Blue Chip forecasts suggest 'clearly not a recession'. Waves off recession

risks perceived from volatility in stock market, and says long-end bond rally

due to global factors.

- Continues to sound unmoved since his hawkish dissent. Re global uncertainty

impact on US economy: Consumption at 70% of GDP will get GDP growth to 2%, even

if business investment is weak. Re possibility of Sep rate cut: Watching

consumers, but retail sales were strong; watching geopolitical concerns (cites

Brexit, Hong Kong). Even tariffs announced for Sep not certain to go into

effect.

- On inversion of yield curve: An important signal; do want to know why

financial markets are pricing where they are. Cites Germany trading at -0.6% as

example of global factor why Tsy yields low. U.S. Is not a 'great exporting

nation': others like China etc are, so if int'l trade is slowing down, they will

be disproportionally affected compared to U.S. Forecasters are taking those

factors into account.