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RUB Catches a Bid ahead of Borrell & CPI Data

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens lower, finally taking out lateral support at 75.3544 to pull closer to 75.00 as $ buying receded in early trading.
  • RUB has bucked successive days of higher oil prices, driven by embedded sanctions/political risks surrounding Navalny.
  • Focus now shifts to Borrell's talks with Lavrov to determine if the EU's hardline stance was all just hot air.
  • Cross may be choppy today on sanctions headline risks, but starting to look heavier now that we're back below 75.50.
  • Spot will need to clear 75.9224 decisively to unlock a more comprehensive move lower back towards pre-Navalny levels around 73.00.
  • Focus today on CPI data for signs of longevity in the recent inflation spike. Core CPI expected to remain high at 4.6% vs 4.2% prior, Headline expected to breach 5.00% at 5.3% vs 4.9% prior.
  • Upside prints reinforce the CBR's cautious stance, but markets becoming wary that the wheat export tariffs may accelerate inflation - resulting in earlier than expected hikes.
  • Most base cases see recent inflation as transitory and likely to recede by 2H21, opening space for one more 25bp cut.
  • However, risks to an expedited hiking cycle are undoubtedly noteworthy. Sup1: 75.00, Sup2: 74.9224, Res1: 75.3594, Res2: 75.4635.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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