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Free AccessRUB Dials in on OPEC+ JMMC as Output Hike Speculation Whirls
- USD/RUB opens lower on the back of a softer dollar and higher oil futures, following on from a solid session of US sanctions-related RUB gains.
- Oil markets dial in on the OPEC meetings today and tomorrow for signs of increased output. Markets have mostly priced in a 1.5m bbl/day hike
- but a leaked JTC document called for cautious optimism, citing "uncertainties underlying physical markets and macro sentiment" that may see this number diminish.
- API inventories also showed a substantial build at +7.4m bbls vs -0.928m exp, weighing on futures.
- USD/RUB has broken the short-term uptrend established on 12 Feb, but will still need to negotiate rising US real yields to realise some of its undervaluation.
- Overcoming the Navalny sanctions hurdle is a significant pro, but SolarWinds hacking measures from the US are still in the pipeline and are a concern if they're extensive in scope – which Biden hinted they might be.
- However, as we've seen at these levels – non-material sanctions create temporary uncertainty in the lead-up, followed by a re-establishment of positive RUB sentiment.
- Intraday sup1: 73.4212, Sup2: 73.1217, Res1: 73.6452, Res2: 73.9016
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.