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RUB Optimism Returns as Sanctions Risks Unwind, CBR the Weekly Focus

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens lower after decisively pushing below the 75.00 handle during Friday's session following a predictable softer sanctions approach from the EU, seeing an unwind in Navalny-based sanctions risk premia baked into RUB assets.
  • Focus this week will be on Friday's CBR meeting, where the base case for most remains a hold given the recent spike in inflation.
  • Tone regarding how concerned the bank is on the duration of recent price pressures will be the key element in determining whether these effects will be transient (as most expect - fading by 2H21) or more protracted in nature - necessitating an expedited hiking cycle to anchor CPI lower.
  • RUB remains undervalued relative to EM peers at these levels having reversed from 73.00 to 76.48 on Navalny risks, but with those subsiding and oil prices trading near $60/bbl, we may see RUB optimism return in the next few weeks, provided global risk sentiment plays ball.
  • Sup1: 73.9016, Sup2: 73.4109, Res1: 74.73, Res2: 74.9969
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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