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RUB Resilience to be Tested as EU Threats Escalate

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens higher on a firmer greenback, weaker oil prices and threats from Lavrov that Russia is ready to break EU relations if harsh sanctions are imposed.
  • This marks an interesting shift to the offensive from Russia, that has preferred dialogue to threats, until now and may see more volatility creep into today's price action as we receive responses from the EU and the CBR makes its rates decision.
  • CBR expected to strike a cautious tone, keeping the key rate unchanged at 4.25% as the recent inflation overshoot (5.3% in Jan) proves more resilient than initially anticipated.
  • Focus will be on Nabiullina at the presser for a hawkish tilt in guidance, but may fall short of signalling an expedited hiking cycle.
  • Markets likely to look to fade any geopolitics-induced moves higher given how undervalued the RUB is, provided conditions do not deteriorate too dramatically.
  • Sup1: 73.9109, Sup2: 73.6452, Res1: 74.2086, Res2: 74.5050
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets News

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