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RUB Teeters on 15-Month High vs the USD, Buoyed By Oil Upside

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.34% lower at the open, broadly in line with firmer oil markets and early selling pressure on the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +0.24% on Friday for a weekly decline of -1.18% as upside pressure in oil markets and expectations for tighter CBR policy buoyed demand for RUB.
  • Brent continues to head skyward with spot +1.72% higher this morning and approaching $84/bbl. Today's meeting with US Undersecretary Nuland will be watched closely for geopolitical tensions with the US, alongside a substantial uptick in the domestic current account surplus resulting from more attractive terms of trade.
  • In the week ahead, the primary focus will be on China/US data and the FOMC minutes from clues on tapering and rates lift off.
  • Weekly CPI data will also be monitored ahead of next Friday's CBR meeting with markets pricing in a more hawkish response from the CBR as inflation continues to develop above its forecasts.
  • Momentum in USD/RUB remains to the downside with markets increasingly bullish on RUB amid record high RUB-denominated oil/gas prices.
  • Price action is now teetering on a new 15 month low, should spot move below the June lows at 71.5542 – with the next major support at 70.6878. Intraday Sup1: 71.5542, Sup2: 71.4168, Res1: 71.8659, 72.0654
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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