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Ruble Rallies as Brent Rips Higher, Duma Elections a Non-Event

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.14% higher this morning in line with a firmer BBDXY.
  • The cross took a notable step lower in yesterday's session, falling -0.98% to take out the key level forming at 72.50 as RUB gains more bullish traction.
  • The move was facilitated by robust gains in the oil complex with storms in the Gulf affecting output levels and both EIA & API inventories showing much larger than expected draws.
  • Focus now turns to the $76.74 Fibonacci extension point for more bullish impetus.
  • On the domestic front, Russia is set to press ahead with Duma elections tomorrow with United Russia expected to maintain its supermajority in somewhat of a non-event.
  • Russia has hit back at the EP's threats of non-recognition, but geopolitical risks remain low at this juncture with the period after the vote becoming more important to monitor.
  • US retail sales data will be the key USD-side driver today.
  • USD/RUB continues to trade heavily with a large bearish engulfing candle reflecting renewed downside momentum in the cross towards the June lows at 71.55.
  • Intraday Sup1: 72.2462, Sup2: 72.0413, Res1: 72.6637, Res2: 72.8201

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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