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RUSSIA: CBR Expected to Deliver “Significant” Rate Hike

RUSSIA
  • The CBR is expected to hike its key rate by 200bps to 18% after price growth in Russia accelerated for a sixth straight month. The central bank has held the benchmark at 16% since December, but Governor Nabiullina and other officials have warned that a “significant” rate hike will be needed if inflationary pressures don’t start to fade.
  • The rate decision itself is at 11:30BST/13:30 local time, followed by a press conference by Nabiullina at 13:00BST/15:00 local time. See our full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
  • Russian gas production rose 8.3% y/y to 357.3bcm in the first half of 2024, Kommersant report citing sources. Production jumped 9.5% to 49bcm in June as Gazprom boosted exports and hot weather increased domestic demand for electricity and gas.
  • Some Chinese banks have begun to differentiate between "dirty" and "clean" yuan, the former being yuan associated with Russia, Vedomosti report. Banks only want to work with "clean" currency, which is further complicating Russian importers' settlements with Chinese counterparties, forcing them to look for "clean" yuan elsewhere, the newspaper add.
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