Russia-Led Collective Security Pact Begins Military Drills In Belarus

The Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) begins its joint military exercises on the territory of Belarus, including at sites just a few kilometres from the border of NATO member Poland. The alliance will conduct five drills in Belarus through September 6, including an exercise for resolving a hypothetical crisis situation in Eastern Europe, before moving to Kyrgyzstan.

• While the war games will keep tensions between Russia and East European NATO members simmering, they represent a de-escalation from the previous years, likely reflecting the decrease in Russia's military capacity as the ongoing invasion of Ukraine continues to drain its resources.
• Earlier this week, the UK Defence Ministry said that Russia likely cancelled the large-scale joint strategic exercise Zapad-2023 and replaced it with the down-scaled CSTO drill dubbed "Combat Brotherhood-2023" due to the lack of troops and equipment. This confirmed rumours doing the rounds in Russian social media a few months ago.
• Russia's Zapad exercises steadily increased in scale over the past decade, culminating in the 2021 war games seen as a key element of the preparations for the attack on Ukraine. Western analysts suggest that the drills failed to prepare Russian troops for an invasion, while this year's move to more limited exercises highlights existing capacity constraints.