Russian Oil Exports From Western Ports To Fall 100-200kbpd in August

Russian oil exports from its western ports are set to fall by around 100-200kbpd in August compared to July levels, as the country plans to cut crude exports by 500kbpd next month, two sources said on Friday, citing export plans.

• As Russia did not reveal the baseline for its 500kbpd exports cut in August, analysts and traders had said it would be difficult to monitor. But according to trading sources and Refinitiv Eikon data, the August cuts will deepen export reductions between May and July that already total 500kbpd.
• Western ports July loadings are set to fall to 1.9mbpd, compared to 2.3mbpd in June and 2.4mbpd in May according to Refinitiv.
• Russian offline primary oil refining capacity is seen rising by 40% in August from July, making additional oil export cuts next month even tougher for many.
• If Russia wants to cut oil exports in August from July, companies may postpone some planned works to autumn months to increase domestic oil consumption, or cut oil production, traders said.