Russia’s Seaborne Crude Flows Steady Prior To Ukraine Attack

Russia’s seaborne crude flows stabilized in the four weeks to Aug. 6, before Ukrainian naval drones attacked two Russian ships in the Black Sea

• Average shipments stood at 3.0mb/d, about 870kb/d below the peak in mid-May and 0.279mb/d below the previous week, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. However, it is marginally above the 4-week average by around 36kb/d.
• Russia briefly halted traffic at Novorossiysk after a Ukrainian drone attack, although it didn’t report any damage to key infrastructure and oil loadings continued. Vessels waiting to load crude there were doing so much further south than normal, although none had turned away.
• The figures indicate that Moscow is now honouring a pledge to cut production and limit supply to the global market alongside its allies inside OPEC+. Moscow’s initial pledge to cut production by 500kb/d in March had no immediate effect on exports, but exports are now around 290kb/d below the February average – the baseline month for Russia’s output cut.
• Exports to Asian customers have averaged 2.73mb/d in the four weeks to Aug 6, while Europe has taken 146kb/d, with no Russian crude shipped to northern European countries.

Source: Bloomberg