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Needle Still Points South

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Yields Bounce as Equities Make New Monthly Highs

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Heading North

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Bull Rally Accelerates

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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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  • Banco Santander note that the aggressive policy tightening at yesterday's rate decision gives the central bank a degree of freedom to calibrate rates toward monetary normalization in upcoming meetings.
  • They write that should a fourth withdrawal of pension funds go ahead, there could be new aggressive hikes in the policy rate, which will place it above its neutral level at the beginning of next year. This is ahead of the September forecasts outlined in the policy report.
  • However, if the new withdrawal does not proceed in the Senate, the Council would have room to reduce the speed of increases and evaluate the trajectory of inflation on the policy horizon.
  • Lastly, the board agreed to suspend the reserve replacement and expansion program that began in January 2021 and although it could have some downward bias for the exchange rate, Santander foresee that the impact would be rather limited .