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SARB Preview - November 2023: SARB Expected To Stand Pat

Executive Summary

  • The SARB is widely expected to stand pat on rates.
  • CPI inflation has accelerated but upside risks are moderating.
  • The central bank may stick with its hawkish language.

Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:

MNI SARB Preview - November 2023.pdf

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) may keep its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% this week, while maintaining hawkish tone to address upside risks to the inflation outlook. Consensus looks for a stand-pat decision at the final SARB monetary policy meeting of the year, but Governor Lesetja Kganyago may yet again strike some hawkish notes in order to ensure that inflation returns to the mid-point of the +3.0%-6.0% Y/Y target range. The vote split and the language of communications will be closely watched.

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