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Saunders comments hit December rate hike prospects

BOE
  • If the most hawkish member isn't sure he is voting for a hike, the median MPC member now looks even less likely to vote for a hike in December - hence the market reaction.
  • Of course, it's hard to interpret the views of other members, but given Saunders has consistently been the most hawkish for some time, a December hike is now looking increasingly less likely.
  • We have seen Dec-21 short sterling move from 99.845 to a high of 99.885 (4 ticks higher) before moving to 99.875 at writing.
  • Dec-22 short sterling up from 98.815 to 98.860 (4.5 tick move).
  • This has also translated to EURGBP moving above yesterday's highs with our technical analyst noting the next resistance at 0.8544, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - 22 sell-off. GBPUSD also below yesterday's lows.
  • Gilt futures hit high of the day of 126.84 (close to the Nov 30 high / bull trigger at 126.87).
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