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SCANDIS: NOKSEK: 0.6% Lower As Crude Weighs On NOK and SEK Remains Resilient

SCANDIS
CEEMEABulletSwedenNorwayGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

This morning’s selloff in crude prices has weighed on the NOK, while SEK performs quite resiliently despite the pullback in European equities (though EURSEK remains contained by its October range).

  • We think crude prices will remain the key driver of NOKSEK in the short-term, particularly if the November Riksbank and Norges Bank decisions maintain 2024’s status quo (i.e. Riksbank leaning dovish and cutting rates by at least 25bps and Norges Bank remaining on hold).
  • NOKSEK is 0.6% lower today, hovering around 0.9600. Bearish conditions remain prevalent after the failed breach of the 50-day EMA over the last two weeks.
  • First support is at 0.9572 (Sep 26 low), which has been tested three times in the last month. This shields 0.9536 (Sep 11 low) and key medium-term pivot support at 0.9500.
  • On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA (0.9694) would need to be followed by a move towards the Sep 24 high at 0.9780 to signal a possible reversal.
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This morning’s selloff in crude prices has weighed on the NOK, while SEK performs quite resiliently despite the pullback in European equities (though EURSEK remains contained by its October range).

  • We think crude prices will remain the key driver of NOKSEK in the short-term, particularly if the November Riksbank and Norges Bank decisions maintain 2024’s status quo (i.e. Riksbank leaning dovish and cutting rates by at least 25bps and Norges Bank remaining on hold).
  • NOKSEK is 0.6% lower today, hovering around 0.9600. Bearish conditions remain prevalent after the failed breach of the 50-day EMA over the last two weeks.
  • First support is at 0.9572 (Sep 26 low), which has been tested three times in the last month. This shields 0.9536 (Sep 11 low) and key medium-term pivot support at 0.9500.
  • On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA (0.9694) would need to be followed by a move towards the Sep 24 high at 0.9780 to signal a possible reversal.