Scor: Good 4Q23 Results Hit By High Tax, Should Be Credit Positive

Scor (SCR FP) 4Q23 were a small revenue miss but positive operating metrics otherwise (impacted by higher tax). Credit metrics appear solid and there is little to justify the last week's weaknesses in the company's cash curve, we feel.

• Insurance revenue was 2% lower y/y and missed consensus by 3% (EUR3.83bn vs. 3.96 est.), mainly in non-life, and the insurance service result (profit) was 23% ahead of expectations (EUR417m vs. 339 est.). The investment result was well ahead (22% vs. consensus) meaning pre-tax beat by 40% but a much higher tax rate meant net income missed by 8%.
• Solvency ratio: the S2 ratio was 209% (207% est.), shareholders equity is up 8.6% and economic value up 3%, all solid figures. The S2 range is restated at 185-220%.
• Outlook: 1-Jan-24 renewals in P&C saw a 3.1% price increase, the FY24 combined ratio assumption is static at “<87%” and the tax rate is seen back towards 30% (from the near-50% in 4Q23).

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