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Scotiabank Maintain Expectation Of Rate Closing 2024 Around 6.75%

COLOMBIA
  • Today’s meeting continues pointing out that the majority of the board is waiting for further information before starting the easing cycle. Minister Bonilla continued being very vocal, calling for a rate cut, and Scotiabank expect this disagreement will persist in the medium term.
  • Scotiabank think that seeing further correction in core inflation and some better clarity about minimum wage negotiation could support some probability of having a rate cut. However, if information by then is not convincing, the easing cycle could be delayed to Q1-2024.
  • In any case, Scotiabank’s scenario favours a 50bps rate cut if the easing cycle starts in December, or a stronger start with no less than a 100bps cut if the easing cycle begins later in Q1-2024. Either way, we maintain our expectation of a monetary policy rate closing 2024 around 6.75%.

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