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Scotiabank Note Underlying Economic Weakness

CHILE
  • Chile’s October economic activity data decently beat expectations, however, markets would be wrong to think this was a good print, since non-mining economic activity fell by 0.4% m/m in contrast to mining surging by 6.42%.
  • The non-mining side of the economy is in weak shape, contracting for the first time since early-2021 on a year-on-year basis, down 1% as trade (wholesale and retail) takes a hit from high interest rates and the end of the pension-withdrawals sugar rush.
  • The results of the BCCh’s pre-meeting Financial Traders Survey released today show a median overnight rate forecast of 6.5% twelve months ahead (December 2023), down from 8% at the October post-meeting poll.
  • The distribution of responses is strange, however, with an inverted bell curve shape where a high share sees a sub 6% rate against a high share that see a 7%+ rate—which may reflect an important degree of uncertainty among market participants.
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  • Chile’s October economic activity data decently beat expectations, however, markets would be wrong to think this was a good print, since non-mining economic activity fell by 0.4% m/m in contrast to mining surging by 6.42%.
  • The non-mining side of the economy is in weak shape, contracting for the first time since early-2021 on a year-on-year basis, down 1% as trade (wholesale and retail) takes a hit from high interest rates and the end of the pension-withdrawals sugar rush.
  • The results of the BCCh’s pre-meeting Financial Traders Survey released today show a median overnight rate forecast of 6.5% twelve months ahead (December 2023), down from 8% at the October post-meeting poll.
  • The distribution of responses is strange, however, with an inverted bell curve shape where a high share sees a sub 6% rate against a high share that see a 7%+ rate—which may reflect an important degree of uncertainty among market participants.