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Scotiabank Revises Year-End CPI Forecast To 3.6%

PERU
  • Scotiabank has revised its inflation forecast for 2023 from 4.6% to 3.6%, considering that inflation is lower than expected, the moderation of the effects of El Niño and more stable oil prices in a scenario of lower probability of escalation of international conflicts.
  • The lower level of inflation to begin 2024 leads the bank to also revise its inflation forecast for next year from 4.0% to 3.5%. That is, in general terms Scotiabank expect an inflation rate like this year’s for next year, slightly higher than the central bank’s target range (between 1% and 3%), since they maintain a moderate/strong El Niño scenario in the macro forecast.
  • Lower inflationary pressures create room for the BCRP to continue its interest rate cutting cycle and Scotiabank anticipate another cut of 25bps to 6.75% at its meeting on Thursday, December 14th. In the latest LatAm Weekly publication, Scotiabank have also revised the interest rate forecast for end-2024, from 5.00% to 4.75%, consistent with the review of a lower inflation rate.
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