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Scotiabank Say Milei Faces Uphill Battle to Pass Extreme Policies

ARGENTINA
  • Sunday’s presidential elections delivered a much larger win than expected for libertarian Milei over Econ Min Massa, of 56% vs 44%. International Argentinean bonds are opening stronger—e.g. the 2035 issue is up ~0.50c to a still very cheap 28c on the dollar—reflecting some optimism in markets that a radical change in government could turn around public finances.
  • In his victory speech, Milei struck a relatively modest tone where he did not mention his previously-floated plans of dollarization or closing the central bank.
  • Milei faces an uphill battle to pass extreme policies, too, as his political alliance has a much smaller share of seats in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies than the other two leading parties, Juntos por el Cambio (JxC, Bullrich) and Union por la Patria (Massa); even if all JxC lawmakers followed Bullrich in supporting Milei, he would still fall short of a Senate majority.
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