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Scotiabank Say Real Rates Remain Much Too Restrictive At This Point

BRAZIL
  • Scotiabank have noted that Brazil’s real rates around double digits (using latest inflation, vs around 9% using expected inflation) remain much too restrictive at this point in the cycle, and the BCB looks on track to cut by 50bps at each of its three remaining decisions this year.
  • This would bring the Selic rate to 11.75%, however Scotiabank acknowledge markets are leaning towards a 11.50% year-end rate.
  • Scotiabank see a lot of data due for release between now and the September decision, and will be focusing on the weekly BCB survey expectations alongside the hard inflation data for July and August.
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