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Scotiabank Says BCRP May Cut Rates Next Week After August CPI Data

PERU
  • Despite the slightly larger-than-expected increase in CPI inflation in August, Scotiabank still sees scope for the BCRP to cut its policy rate once again at its September 12 policy meeting. To recap, headline consumer prices rise by 0.28% m/m last month, following a 0.24% increase in July, above the +0.22% consensus. In annual terms, headline inflation declined to 2.03% y/y, from 2.13%, marginally above the 2.00% consensus.
  • Scotiabank notes that the data showed a nice deceleration in core inflation to within the BCRP’s 1–3% target range for the first time since January 2024. Core inflation fell to 2.78% y/y, its lowest since September 2021, from 3.02%, as prices rose by just 0.02% on a monthly basis, the smallest August increase since 2014.
  • With core inflation within the target band and headline inflation in the middle of it, BRCP may choose to cut by another 25bp to 5.25% next week.
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