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SEB Survey - EURSEK At 12.00 May Delay First Riksbank Cut

SEK

Major Swedish FX participants, surveyed by SEB, believe the Riksbank may delay their first rate cut if EURSEK reaches 12.00 before the May meeting.

  • Of those surveyed, “81% believe that there is a level for EUR/SEK where the Riksbank will not implement a rate cut in May and that level is estimated to be at 12.00”.
  • On average, respondents expect the Riksbank to cut in May, the ECB in June and the Fed/Norges Bank in September.
  • Participants view the Fed, the Riksbank and general market risk appetite as the main negative drivers for the SEK (in the October ’23 survey, the Riksbank was deemed the largest positive SEK driver).
  • “Positioning has continued to normalize showing a smaller SEK overweight compared to the survey in October 2023”.
  • “EUR/SEK is expected to trade at 11.50 by mid-2024 and 11.20 the end of 2024”.
  • “USD/SEK is expected at 10.80 mid-year and to fall more significantly down to 10.25 by year-end”.
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