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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview-Apr 2024: Disinflation Delayed, Not Yet Denied
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Inflation heated up in the first quarter while growth slowed.
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Former Central Bank of Brazil Deputy for Monetary Policy Luiz Fernando Figueiredo says Copom is unlikely to provide guidance to its steps beyond May.
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The BOJ still sees insufficient justification for any monetary policy move in response to a weakening yen.
MNI China Press Digest Apr 25: Stability, Bond, Japanification
MNI picks key stories from today's China press
Biden Has Razor Thin Electoral Edge Over Trump, According To New Analysis
A new multilevel regression and poststratification analysis by Stack Data Strategy has forecast that President Biden would narrowly win the presidency if the elections were held today.
- Stack Data Strategy notes: “Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump by 287 electoral college votes to 251 if the presidential election were held today… Biden would also win the popular vote by 49.6% to 46.9%.”
- Stack adds: “However, Biden’s projected win is based on the narrowest of leads in key battleground states: in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin he is winning by less than half of one percentage point. If Trump were to overtake Biden in Pennsylvania alone, he would win the election.”
- Stack’s analysis also supports a recent polling trend suggesting that third-party candidates are more likely to harm Trump than Biden: “RFK Jr. increases Biden’s lead in key battleground states when included.”
- Joe Bedell, Head of Stack Data Strategy in North America, said: “The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife edge. According to our in-depth research, President Biden is currently on course to cling on in the White House. But this is only by the narrowest of margins: only a percentage point in some states. The Midwest states that took Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it is effectively a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds… This is going to be a truly nail-biting contest.”
Figure 1: Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Analysis, 2024 Presidential Election
Source: Stack Data Strategy
President Biden Remarks On CHIPS And Science Investment Underway Shortly
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver remarks from Syracuse, New York on a majorfunding allocation to Micron to develop semiconductor manufacturing plants in New York and Idaho. LIVESTREAM
- Under the terms preliminary agreement, Micron would be eligible for USD$6.14 billion in direct grants and USD$7.5 billion in loans - the second-largest package awarded so-far from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act.
- Mark Weiner reports: "Micron President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, Gov. Kathy Hochul and Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon are among hundreds of guests invited by the White House who will be on hand to meet with Biden."
- Bloomberg reports: "Officials have allocated nearly 85% of the Chips Act manufacturing incentives, including [today's Micron allocation]. But they’re just beginning to open applications for R&D funding that some experts say could prove more critical in the long term."
- Additional background to the remarks in earlier bullet.
Yellen: Sanctioning Chinese Banks Is A "Tool That Is Available"
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke to Reuters on a range of issues related to the US-China relationship. Select highlights below.
- Asked about potential sanctions on Chinese banks if they facilitate transactions on ‘dual use’ goods to Russia’s military. Yellen says: “There’s an executive order that the President has signed which gives Treasury the power to sanction foreign banks, in China or other places, that are facilitating the flow of military goods to Russia. That’s an important power and one we would be prepared to use if necessary."
- Yellen adds: "We’ve has intensive discussions with the Chinese about this I think they understand our position and it is a tool that's available."
- When pressed if sanctions could be imminent, Yellen says she has “nothing to announce.”
- Yellen says she has generally, “been in favor of free trade, but it has to be something that broadly benefits people throughout the country," noting that much of the US industrial workforce hasn’t recovered from “China shock” after the China was accepted into the WTO.
- Asked if she thinks US policies could be a harbinger of further protectionism, Yellen says: “I don’t think it should be.”
- On Chinese green overcapacity, Yellen says: "We're concerned about over dependence on one single country for total global supply of this full range of products. That's not a healthy situation." Says she “wouldn’t take anything off the table” to prevent the collapse of US industries while the US and China reach an agreement.
- On Russia, Yellen says that, "outright seizure of [Russian sovereign] assets" is justifiable under international law.
- Yellen notes that the US could get, "several hundred billion dollars in tax revenue," if Congress would get into compliance with the global tax deal next year.
Putin To Visit China In May
Wires carrying comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin confirming that he will travel to China in May. It will be Putin's first international trip since he secured a new six-year term at the Russian Presidential Election in March.
- Reuters reported in late March that, according to Kremlin sources, Putin's trip to China would probably take place in the second half of May. Two of the sources said the Putin visit would come before Xi's planned trip to Europe.
- Notably, the announcement comes as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken continues a trip to China which isn't expected to deliver any concrete breakthroughs on a raft of US concerns over Chinese support of Russia, industrial overcapacity, "unfair" business practices, and confrontational behavior in the South China Sea.
- Concurrent to the Blinken trip, China’s security chief Chen Wenqing has been in St Petersburg attending security talks with Russian counterparts at an international conference of intelligence chiefs, also attended by security officials from Iran, Brazil, South Africa, China, India, and Iraq.
- Bloomberg reports that Chen and Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev discussed, "strengthening ties between the special services and law enforcement agencies of their two countries at talks on Tuesday."
- Putin last visited China in October last year for China’s third Belt and Road Initiative forum. In a readout of Putin-Xi meeting at that event, Xi stated that, “developing the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination with ever-lasting good neighborliness and mutually beneficial cooperation is not an expediency, but a long-term commitment.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.