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Securitas (SECUSS; NR, BBB) Provisions €48m for potential US fines

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • US government is investigating a subsidiary where there may be misconduct from "certain former employees". This seems to date back all the way to 2012 government contract work and securitas first flagged the investigation in its 2023 annual report.
  • Co is provisioning SEK 551m (€48m) "which is the current estimated cost related to this matter" and notes "ongoing constructive dialog with the authorities" - 41% of revenues comes from the US, and grew +3% over 1H.
  • The provision is not a mover; co carries €3.7b of debt (at net 2.9x vs. target <3x) and seems contained based on comments. It was asked if it will divest the subsidiary - it refused to comment.

We don't expect a revisit to our primary - but would not rule out a SEK visit. Front € maturity is the €300 Mar-'25 which we expect refi for. Q3 Results come on the 6th of Nov.

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