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Deutsche Bank: See 1.50% Bank Rate by end-2022

BOE
  • Expect 25bp hike but “expect 2-3 members (Mann, Saunders, and possibly Haskel) to vote for a larger move (50bps).”
  • See three reasons why a 25bp hike is more likely than 50bp in March:
    1. “Financial conditions have tightened”
    2. “The energy shock will have a stronger and more impactful effect on the economy than rate hikes”
    3. “Medium term inflation still looks like it will settle below 2%”
  • Deutsche Bank updated its BOE forecast on Thursday last week: “Inflation will now likely rise further than implied by the February Monetary Policy Report (MPR), peaking over 8% y-o-y, and staying above target for longer… we now pencil in a further hike to our projections (June). In all, we now see the MPC following up its rate hike in March, with three additional 25bps hikes: May, June, August, taking the Bank Rate up to 1.5% by year end (previously: May, August)… we see one further hike next year (Feb-23), taking our projected terminal rate to 1.75% (previously: 1.5%).”
  • “We think risks are tilted towards the MPC lowering the Bank Rate to a slightly more accommodative policy setting (1% to 1.5%) from Q4- 2023 onwards.”
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