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SELIC Rate Decision, March Retail Sales, April Trade Due Today

BRAZIL
  • A majority now expect the BCB to cut by 25bp to 10.50% today, although some still see scope for the Copom to deliver one final 50bp cut, as previously guided (2230BST/1730ET). Alongside the decision, the statement’s description of the external environment and the committee’s language surrounding future policy moves will remain in focus.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • Meanwhile, March retail sales are expected to fall by 0.3% m/m (vs. +1.0% prior), bringing the annual rate of growth down to 5.2% y/y, from 8.2% (1300BST). April trade data will also cross at 1900BST, with analysts expecting the trade surplus to rise to $9.3bn, from $7.48bn. Vehicle sales and production data for April are due at 1400BST.
  • In other news, Planning Minister Simone Tebet said that the government will provide cheap credit and financial aid to help rebuild homes and businesses after the flooding in the south of the country. Finance Minister Haddad is due to discuss economic measures to address problems raised by the floodings at 1200BST.

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