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​Sell-Side Desks Say Global Picture, Positioning Driving Moves in HUF

HUF
  • ING say EURHUF values around 390 open the question of whether we will hear some comments from the NBH, given that we are entering sensitive waters. They say market positioning is probably balanced after the sell-off over the last few days, adding that they believe this leg of the move-up is over. Nevertheless, ING say it is hard to see a quick recovery in HUF.
  • Correlation with the US dollar has been almost perfect for the past month, they say, meaning the main driver in EURHUF has been global factors. Therefore, they don't see too much potential either way heading toward US inflation numbers.
  • Meanwhile, JPM say last week saw a purge of popular carry trades, with HUF selling seen from the fast money and HF community. Aside from positioning, HUF remains favorable given the stronger fundamentals versus its peers and higher carry, JPM say, with HFs seen starting to rebuy the forint in the past few sessions.
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