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USDCAD TECHS

Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish

AUDUSD TECHS

Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High

US

'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate

COMMODITIES

Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • Today’s CPI print will be monitored closely ahead of next Friday’s CBR meeting with analysts split over the size of the bank’s next potential hike. The range of expectations is currently +50-100bp, with most leaning towards the 75-100bp range.
  • Headline CPI is expected to print in the 8.3-8.4% y/y range (bbg 8.35%), driven by non-core factors as the earlier shock from fruit and vegetable prices seems to have eased.
  • The higher print is mostly a function of a weaker RU, higher retail prices of some imported goods (delays of supplies going through EU-Belarus borders), and traditional price increases ahead of the New Year holidays.
  • Prices are expected to peak in December, however, with more favourable base effects, along with a firmer RUB, filtering through into the final reading for the year.
  • Weekly inflation prints suggest headline momentum is slowing, but price pressures have broadened across the basket - which may prompt the CBR to target the upper end of the hiking range (+75-100bp) in keeping with its push to re-anchor inflation expectations.