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- Today’s CPI print will be monitored closely ahead of next Friday’s CBR meeting with analysts split over the size of the bank’s next potential hike. The range of expectations is currently +50-100bp, with most leaning towards the 75-100bp range.
- Headline CPI is expected to print in the 8.3-8.4% y/y range (bbg 8.35%), driven by non-core factors as the earlier shock from fruit and vegetable prices seems to have eased.
- The higher print is mostly a function of a weaker RU, higher retail prices of some imported goods (delays of supplies going through EU-Belarus borders), and traditional price increases ahead of the New Year holidays.
- Prices are expected to peak in December, however, with more favourable base effects, along with a firmer RUB, filtering through into the final reading for the year.
- Weekly inflation prints suggest headline momentum is slowing, but price pressures have broadened across the basket - which may prompt the CBR to target the upper end of the hiking range (+75-100bp) in keeping with its push to re-anchor inflation expectations.