Sell-side views ahead of August CPI

• In its June MPR, the Bank expected August CPI-ATE at 6.4% Y/Y, though consensus is for a stronger 6.6% Y/Y print. Below is a summary of the sell-side views - who largely look for buoyant food prices to support core inflation:

• Core inflation has been driven largely by food prices. These climbed far less in July than last year, which may mean that they come down more cautiously than normal in August.
• However, there are also signs that the biggest price hikes may now be behind us. On the other hand, we expect services inflation to remain high due to stronger wage growth, and airfares.

DNB: Forecast core and headline inflation at 6.6% and 5.5%

• We forecast CPI-ATE to have fallen by 0.2% MOM. This is partly based on a still rising underlying trend for several price categories.
• Expect electricity prices to have risen only marginally from July to August, meaning prices will contribute to lower headline inflation YOY. However, rising fuel prices and higher core inflation dominate and pull up CPI to 5.5% YOY.

• Food prices are expected to decline less than normal in August, and we expect food prices to continue to rise throughout this year, corrected for seasonality. Not seasonally adjusted prices are expected to be largely stable.
• Headline inflation, on the other hand, is expected to decline to 5.3% from 5.4% on a year-on-year basis. Electricity prices have fallen below the state subsidy level and prices continued to fall in August.

Handelsbanken: Expect the CPI-ATE at 6.5%.

• Likely to see that the monthly pace was somewhat stronger than what we have seen on average historically. This will buoy the CPI-ATE in Y/Y terms.