MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Sell-side Views on BCCh Decision

CHILE
  • JPM write that the move was more aggressive than they'd expected, with the message clear: the BCCh will not fall behind the curve against a lack of fiscal anchor and risk of additional pension fund withdrawals.
  • The decision breaks the dovish aura at recent decisions, and JPM await today's policy report before fine tuning their base case. They see the policy rate reaching 3.50% by H2 2022.
  • Goldman Sachs see the bank as sending a strong signal of its commitment to guide inflation to the target and anchor inflation expectations. The MPC have now reduced the risk of having to deliver an interest rate shock later on to re-anchor inflation to the target.
  • The forward guidance suggests additional rate hikes to come, with economic fundamentals reducing the need for accommodative monetary policy. The unsettled political and policy backdrop and loose fiscal policy also supports a conservative calibration of monetary policy. GS now expect the policy rate to reach 2.75% by end-2021, and further up to 4.00%-4.25% by end-2022, i.e., modestly above-neutral.
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