Sell-side Views Post Yesterday's CPI Data

J.P. Morgan sees a +25bps hike in August from BoT. Goldman Sachs forecasts steady policy for the remainder of the year, albeit with risks of a shift at the next policy meeting given hawkish BoT rhetoric.

J.P. Morgan: "Inflation profile to remain benign in 2H; Pencil in 25bp hike in August on hawkish BoT rhetoric – Following the soft June print, we continue to expect headline inflation to stay in the 0-1% range in 2H23, helped by base effects despite sequential gains from possibly higher global oil and food prices. Core inflation is also expected to moderate to the 1% handle for the rest of the year. Despite the benign inflation profile, we add one more 25bp hike in August, taking into consideration the Bank of Thailand (BoT)’s hawkish guidance and intention to normalize the policy rate. This takes our terminal rate forecast to 2.25%, with an upside bias."

Goldman Sachs: "Given subdued inflation, we continue to expect BOT to keep its policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the year. However, we see a significant risk of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting given BOT's more hawkish stance recently."