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September Beige Book Flags Slowing Growth

FED

The September edition of the Fed's Beige Book just released flags slowing economic growth, while also noting a downshift in employment gains and price pressures.

  • On economic growth: "Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace in early July through August" ("largely attributable to a pullback in dining out, travel, and tourism in most Districts, reflecting safety concerns due to the rise of the Delta variant"...and "constrained by supply disruptions and labor shortages, as opposed to softening demand". (vs July's Beige Book: "moderate to robust growth")
  • On employment: "All Districts continued to report rising employment overall, though the characterization of the pace of job creation ranged from slight to strong. Demand for workers continued to strengthen, but all Districts noted extensive labor shortages that were constraining employment and, in many cases, impeding business activity. " (vs July's Beige Book: "Three-quarters of Districts reported either slight or modest job gains and the remainder reported moderate or strong increases in employment. "
  • And steadying but elevated inflation: "Inflation was reported to be steady at an elevated pace, as half of the Districts characterized the pace of price increases as strong, while half described it as moderate. " (vs July's Beige Book: "Prices increased at an above-average pace, as seven Districts reported strong price growth and the rest saw moderate gains.")

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