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Services & Composite PMIs Expected, USDBRL Steady

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real is opening moderately higher on Thursday, in line with a small pullback in the USD index. Once again, mixed performance across the commodity complex and a lack of domestic drivers should keep volatility in check before tomorrow’s US employment data. Released this morning, Brazil's bank loans rose 0.9% m/m in November versus revised +0.4% in October, according to the central bank. The personal loan default rate fell to 5.7% from 5.9% in October.
  • Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said he believes Brazil's benchmark interest rate could be a full percentage point below the current 11.75%, speaking in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday. Haddad also signalled that President Lula no longer had issues with central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto, whom he harshly criticized early last year for high interest rates. Despite expectations remaining firmly for two more consecutive 50bp rate cuts, the comments come at an interesting time as two new (Lula appointed) BCB board members take their new positions.
    • Services and composite PMI data is due at 1300GMT/0800ET with both the composite and services figures coming in above 50 in November.
    • Treasury are expected to auction fixed-rate LTN local notes due 2025, 2026, 2028 and 2030; fixed-rate NTN-F local notes due 2031 and 2035. The volume of the notes will be announced around 1030 local time, which may impact the volatility for swap rates amid a relatively light global docket in the lead up to Friday’s US employment report.
    • Both the BCB Governor Campos Neto and Finance Minister Haddad are listed as on vacation. Brazil’s congress remains in recess, reducing political activity to a minimum.
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