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FOREX: Services joins manufacturing to flag US recession risk
-Thursday's non-manufacturing ISM release mimicked the pattern seen in earlier
in the week, with almost universally lower components indicating a broad-based
slowdown in economic activity. The headline was the lowest in three years, with
particular attention paid to the poor employment sub-index, which raised
material concerns over Friday's nonfarm payrolls release (for which the whisper
number has dropped to 125k from above 150k a month ago).
-Markets responded by selling the greenback against most others, pressuring
USD/JPY to the lowest levels since early September and comfortably through the
50-dma. At the other end of the table, GBP enjoyed its best session in three
weeks as markets bought further into the belief that PM Johnson's new Brexit
proposals could pass muster in the House of Commons. Focus rests on the EU's
response which, so far, hasn't been too positive.
-Australian retail sales, Canadian August trade balance data and the September
jobs report take focus Friday. Speeches are also due from RBA's Ellis, ECB's de
Guindos, Fed's Rosengren, Bostic and most importantly Powell.