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Services PMI Points To Demand Slowdown

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JPMorgan Global Services PMI came out at 52.7 in July, vs 53.9 in June - still in expansionary territory but marking the lowest reading since February 2023. Input prices (lowest since Dec 2020) and employment (lowest since Jan) both ticked down, leading to similar outcomes in the Composite readings as the Manufacturing PMI print out Tuesday (48.7, unch from June) corroborated.

  • July's PMIs pointed to slower Services sector growth in the U.S., eurozone, Japan, UK. Russia and Brazil - China and India bucked the trends with quicker expansion. Output and New Orders eased to 5- and 6-month lows, respectively.
  • For the Composite index as a whole, the Eurozone was the biggest drag. Composite New Orders weakened, with the ongoing slowdown in manufacturing demand being joined by a further slowdown for services firms. Input cost inflation declined for a 6th consecutive month, while output costs ticked higher on balance (led by services).
  • The resilience in Services has been a better guide to global economic activity this year than the moribund manufacturing sector, which continues to contract after a significant pandemic rise.
  • The divergence with the jump in Services activity since late 2022 has been significant and has helped the sharp global economic slowdown many had expected this year.
  • But with new orders pulling back, suggestive of weakening demand for Services, there is little to cushion a pullback in global activity in H2 2023.




Source: MNI, BBG, S&P Global

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