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Shelter, Supply Chain-Constrained Areas Make Outsized CPI Contributions

US DATA

The accompanying chart shows the degree to which pandemic-reopening related categories are fading in contribution to overall M/M CPI over the last few months.

  • The contributions to September CPI are arguably in the categories that consumer will "see and feel" most readily: Energy, Food, Rent. And of course, rent/OER count in the core CPI column.
  • A few other to note: new vehicles and household furnishings (supply chain) added 0.05pp each to the total figure, OER 0.1pp (i.e. well over one-third of the core reading), rent 0.03pp.
  • So, the drag from "transitory" items is lessening, while housing prices - which tend to be stickier - are climbing. Overall the kind of report that will give "Team Transitory" something to think about.

Source: BLS, MNI Calculations

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