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Shift Higher In BAX Curve Limited By BoC Only Considering Further Hikes

CANADA
  • BAX yields sit 9-14bps higher out to end 2023 since the BoC decision to hike 50bps to 4.25% (~32bp priced).
  • It pushes a roughly implied terminal more into the 4.25-4.5% range with further increases capped by “considering” whether to hike further.
  • No ‘higher for longer’ type message has meant relatively little change in slopes after inversion had already built ahead of the meeting: BAH3/Z3 sits at -0.62 and BAZ3/BAH4 -0.77.
  • Attention turned to any further guidance with Dep Gov Kozicki’s Economic Progress Report tomorrow, remarks published 1230ET.

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