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Short End Leads Gains

US TSYS

Treasury yields have largely recovered from overnight lows, with the exception of the short end. The curve is therefore bull steepening, reversing some of Monday's bear flattening.

  • The 2-Yr yield is down 3bps at 0.3953%, 5-Yr is down 2.3bps at 1.1471%, 10-Yr is down 1.1bps at 1.5897%, and 30-Yr is up 0.4bps at 2.0378%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 0.5/32 at 130-25 (L: 130-20.5 / H: 130-31).
  • Front EDs have bounced, EDZ2 now up about 10 ticks from Monday's lows.
  • Overall, the short-end gains haven't really been on any particular headline/macro driver, more of a retracement of yesterday's frantic price action.
  • A solid Fed speaker slate: SF's Daly (1100ET), Richmond's Barkin (1215ET), Atlanta's Bostic (1450ET), Gov Waller (1500ET).
  • In data, Sept housing starts at 0830ET.
  • Supply consists of a $60B 40-Day bill auction at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$8.425B of 2.25-4.5Y Tsys and ~$2.025B of 1-7.5Y TIPS.
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