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Short sterling curve steepens to 0.50% hike, then flattens. Payrolls ahead

BONDS
  • Short sterling has seen the most interesting moves in core fixed income this morning. Markets continue to push forward the first hike and the hike to 0.50%. A 15bp hike is now priced around the end of the first quarter and a 25bp hike by the end of 2022. The biggest moves have been around the Sep22/Dec22 contracts, with the curve steepening up to that point and then flattening after. This continues the trend seen yesterday of markets pricing in fast hikes up to the 0.50% threshold when QE reinvestments will cease, with slower rate hikes after. Short sterling Blues for example are only 0.5bp lower on the day. In gilts, 2-year yields are 3.2bp higher on the day while 10-year yields 1.8bp higher as the curve bear flattens.
  • Outside of continued reaction to yesterday's BoE, the US employment report will be the highlight later today. The UST curve has bear steepened. 10-year UST yields are up 1.5bp (not a million miles from the move in 10-year gilts) but 2-year UST yields are only up 0.6bp on the day.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-5+ today at 134-10+ with 10y UST yields up 1.5bp at 1.239% and 2y yields up 0.6bp at 0.206%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.14 today at 177.15 with 10y Bund yields up 0.6bp at -0.494% and Schatz yields up 0.5bp at -0.775%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.16 today at 130.07 with 10y yields up 1.7bp at 0.540% and 2y yields up 3.1bp at 0.119%.


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