Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
Forward looking ANZ business confidence and activity outlook jumped in August to multi-year highs but current activity remains very weak. There was little difference in pre- and post-RBNZ meeting responses. Inflation expectations eased but pricing intentions picked up after the RBNZ said that it is important for price setters to adjust to the return of low inflation. This survey was on the list of high frequency indicators that resulted in its change in view and subsequent rate cut.
- Business confidence rose to 50.6 from 37.1 in August, the highest since 2014, and ANZ observes that responses were already strong before the August 14 rate cut and the third that came in afterwards were similar. This suggests that the move was anticipated by businesses.
- The activity outlook rose to 37.1 from 16.3, the highest in 7 years, but the assessment of current activity compared to a year ago remained weak improving only 1 point to -23 from -24. So growth is lacklustre but is expected to improve, which is consistent with Governor Orr’s belief that now is the “darkest period”.
NZ growth outlook improving
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Inflation expectations moderated 0.3pp to 2.9%, within the RBNZ’s band, but cost and wage expectations remained elevated at 68% and 75% respectively, which likely drove an increase in the share of firms looking to increase prices in the next 3 months to 41% from 37.6%. This component remains below 2023 levels but up on the 2024 low in June and will be monitored to ensure it continues trending lower. ANZ reports a large jump in the share of retailers and manufactures looking to increase prices.
- Labour demand picked up to +11.9 from -3.6, the highest since March 2022. In addition, investment, profit and credit indicators also turned positive.
NZ ANZ business survey cost/inflation indicators
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok