Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Real GDP growth: 2.84% annualized in Q2 (cons 2.0, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow 2.7) after 1.4% in Q1 and the average 4.1% in 2H23.
- Personal consumption growth: 2.3% (cons 2.0, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow 2.2) after 1.5% in Q1 and the average 3.2% in 2H23. It left a 1.6pp contribution after the 1.0pp in Q1 and 2.2pp in 2H24.
- Changes in inventories did indeed act as a large sequential driver on the quarter (swing from -0.4pps to +0.8pp with Atl Fed’s GDPNow particularly close there), but the details shown encouraging signs for domestic demand:
- Final sales to domestic purchasers added 2.74pp to GDP growth after 2.5pp in Q1 for only limited moderation after the strong 3.6pp averaged through 2H23.
- Net trade is another large drag but it’s a further sign of domestic demand strength as imports dragging a heavy -0.9pp from GDP growth after -0.8pp as they increased nearly 7% on the quarter.
- You have to look hard for any softer signs. Government spending accelerated (3.1%, adding 0.53pp on the quarter) which helped exaggerate private sector strength but that’s about it considering non-residential investment also increased 5.2%.
- The softer than expected GDP deflator (2.3% vs cons 2.6) only partly accounted for the upside surprise.
- What’s more, core PCE inflation was notably stronger than expected at 2.89% annualized in Q2 (cons 2.7). The rounded 2.9% figure was above any analyst estimate in the Bloomberg survey.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok