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Slightly Cheaper As Markets Continue To Digest Dec FOMC Minutes

US TSYS

TYH4 is trading at 112-15, -0-01+ from NY closing levels.

  • This comes after US tsys finished little changed on Wednesday. The NY session saw choppy trading after the December FOMC Minutes release. The minutes were balanced but with a dovish tone as officials noted diminished inflation and the need to start a discussion of QT wind down.
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 firmed slightly: January 2024 cumulative -2.1bp at 5.307%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -72.1% vs. -65.4% (-84.3% last Friday) w/ cumulative of -19.7bp at 5.132%, May 2024 chance of cut back to -94.8% vs. -87.2% immediately after the release, cumulative -42.9bp at 4.900%, June'24 cumulative -67.5bp at 4.653%.
  • Crude oil perked up and climbed 3.65% to $72.95 per barrel as a shutdown at a Libyan oil field added to the concerns over Mid East tensions and supply. Gold slid -0.89% to $2040 per ounce, in part hurt by the FOMC minutes, with the firmer dollar weighing too.
  • The market’s focus now turns to ADP private employment later today, followed by December employment data on Friday.
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