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(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

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Expectations of a snap election continues to mount in Canada, with speculation that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could call a vote within the coming days.

  • Recent data released by Elections Canada, the nation's electoral commission, shows the centre-right Conservatives raising CAD13.6mn (USD10.9mn) in H121, compared to CAD6.8mn (USD5.4mn) for Trudeau's centre-left Liberals, with all major parties ramping up fundraising efforts in the expectation of an autumn election.
  • Opinion polling shows the Liberals maintaining a comfortable lead over the Conservatives, with the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) in third place (see chart below).
Chart 1. Canada General Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average

Source: Leger, EKOS, Angus Reid, Mainstreet, Innovative Research, Nanos Research,

  • Polling also shows Trudeau well out in front in the 'preferred prime minister' stakes, leading NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in second, and Conservative leader Erin O'Toole in a distant third place.
  • Reuters reporting has raised the concern among some Liberals that the general expectation that Trudeau's gov't will retain power could see some Liberal voters on the left shift their support to the NDP or the Greens due to lack of concern about the Conservatives coming to power.
  • In recent days both Singh and O'Toole have vocally opposed a snap election, citing concerns about the spread of the Delta COVID-19 variant. However, with Canada's economy rebounding and vaccination rates some of the highest globally, Trudeau may see this as the best chance to win an overall majority (currently the Liberals govern as a minority with NDP support).